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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1385

Edson BarbozavsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · Wednesday, July 16, 2014Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:06

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1480

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricEvan Dunham

4.14

Strikes / min

5.33

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

55%

Strike defense

61%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.82

73%

Takedown defense

79%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +94.9|Blue -94.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

36% acc · 40%

Head

37% acc · 100%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 80%

Distance

35% acc · 80%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 17

Sig Strikes

10 / 27

58%

Sig Str %

37%

10 / 17

Total Strikes

10 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 1	0
1	Edson Barboza	10 / 17	10 / 17	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17