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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1480

Elo1484

Edson BarbozavsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:19

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1480

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricDan Hooker

4.14

Strikes / min

4.82

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

55%

Strike defense

49%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.68

73%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.3|Blue +4.3

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

44% acc · 56%

Head

37% acc · 73%

84% acc · 29%

Body

41% acc · 15%

83% acc · 15%

Leg

71% acc · 12%

By position

117

54% acc · 93%

Distance

39% acc · 96%

82% acc · 7%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes63

Takedowns0

Control1:12

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

126 / 226

Sig Strikes

81 / 204

55.3%

Sig Str %

40%

127 / 227

Total Strikes

111 / 234

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Hooker	26 / 75	26 / 75	0 / 0
1	Edson Barboza	34 / 73	34 / 73	0 / 0
2	Dan Hooker	40 / 96	63 / 119	0 / 0
2	Edson Barboza	63 / 106	63 / 106	0 / 1
3	Dan Hooker	15 / 33	22 / 40	0 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	29 / 47	30 / 48	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24