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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1528

Edson BarbozavsBryce MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsBryce Mitchell: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(71.7%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryce Mitchell at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Bryce Mitchell

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1480

Elo

1528

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricBryce Mitchell

4.14

Strikes / min

2.27

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

1.60

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

3.24

73%

Takedown defense

33%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaBryce Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -301.0|Blue +301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetBryce Mitchell

By target zone

18% acc · 19%

Head

70% acc · 82%

50% acc · 38%

Body

80% acc · 12%

88% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

42% acc · 94%

Distance

50% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

86% acc · 74%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Bryce Mitchell rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:48Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:41Control

Round 3Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:02

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 37

Sig Strikes

34 / 47

48.7%

Sig Str %

73%

23 / 46

Total Strikes

182 / 209

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 4

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

11:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryce Mitchell	14 / 18	47 / 53	1 / 1
1	Edson Barboza	11 / 19	12 / 21	0 / 0
2	Bryce Mitchell	7 / 9	78 / 83	2 / 2
2	Edson Barboza	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0
3	Bryce Mitchell	13 / 20	57 / 73	1 / 1
3	Edson Barboza	2 / 14	8 / 21	0 / 0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14