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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1480

Elo1493

Billy Quarantillo editorial illustration

Edson BarbozavsBilly QuarantilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:37

Style matchupEdson Barboza: Pressure fightervsBilly Quarantillo: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Billy Quarantillo wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Billy Quarantillo at -174 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Edson Barboza has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edson Barboza

Red Corner

Billy Quarantillo

Blue Corner

+146

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-174

(64%)

1480

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bryce Mitchell · Mar 22

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Billy QuarantilloL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shane Burgos · Nov 21

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Dec 22

vs Damon Jackson · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Mar 24

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edson BarbozaMetricBilly Quarantillo

4.14

Strikes / min

7.44

4.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.83

55%

Strike defense

42%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.47

73%

Takedown defense

61%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap+1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edson BarbozaBilly Quarantillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edson Barboza(10 fights)Billy Quarantillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.5|Blue +13.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edson BarbozaTargetBilly Quarantillo

By target zone

52% acc · 62%

Head

42% acc · 84%

100% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 5%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

61% acc · 90%

Distance

44% acc · 95%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edson Barboza rounds

even

Billy Quarantillo rounds

Round 1Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 33

Sig Strikes

19 / 42

63%

Sig Str %

45%

21 / 33

Total Strikes

20 / 43

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Billy Quarantillo	19 / 42	20 / 43	0 / 2	0
1	Edson Barboza	21 / 33	21 / 33	0 / 0	0

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32

Billy Quarantillo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11