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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Edmen Shahbazyan won · SUB R1
Elo1513
Edmen Shahbazyan
Elo1391
Jack Marshman

Edmen ShahbazyanvsJack MarshmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Edmen Shahbazyan won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:12

Model Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan wins(84.0%)

Actual result: Edmen Shahbazyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edmen Shahbazyan at -570 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Edmen Shahbazyan has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Edmen Shahbazyan
Red Corner
VS
Jack Marshman
Blue Corner
-570
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+480
(17%)
1513
Elo
1391
28
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edmen Shahbazyan
oldest →
L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 24
W
KOvs Dylan Budka · Feb 25
W
vs Andre Petroski · Jun 25
W
KOvs Andre Muniz · Oct 25
L
DECvs Brendan Allen · Jun 26
latest
Jack Marshman
oldest →
W
vs Ryan Janes · Jul 17
L
SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17
L
vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18
W
vs John Phillips · Mar 19
L
vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edmen ShahbazyanMetricJack Marshman
3.80
Strikes / min
2.74
3.60
Strikes absorbed / min
4.19
49%
Strike defense
56%
1.62
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
20%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.20Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1502Strikes4.1 vs 2.6Takedowns6.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Edmen ShahbazyanJack Marshman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Edmen Shahbazyan(10 fights)Jack Marshman(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +121.7|Blue -121.7
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edmen ShahbazyanTargetJack Marshman

By target zone

11
50% acc · 85%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 8%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
0

By position

3
50% acc · 23%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
10
56% acc · 77%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Edmen Shahbazyan rounds
0
even
0
Jack Marshman rounds
Round 1Edmen Shahbazyan edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:33
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
13 / 24
Sig Strikes
0 / 7
54%
Sig Str %
0%
13 / 24
Total Strikes
0 / 7
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:33
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jack Marshman0 / 70 / 70 / 00
1Edmen Shahbazyan13 / 2413 / 241 / 11

Edmen Shahbazyan

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights15

Jack Marshman

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8