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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R2

Elo1513

Elo1457

Edmen ShahbazyanvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Saturday, August 24, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:12

Style matchupEdmen Shahbazyan: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edmen Shahbazyan at -325 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Edmen Shahbazyan has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Edmen Shahbazyan

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1513

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edmen Shahbazyan

oldest →

KOvs AJ Dobson · Mar 24

KOvs Dylan Budka · Feb 25

vs Andre Petroski · Jun 25

KOvs Andre Muniz · Oct 25

DECvs Brendan Allen · Jun 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edmen ShahbazyanMetricGerald Meerschaert

3.80

Strikes / min

2.95

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

49%

Strike defense

53%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

1.70

66%

Takedown defense

40%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20evenly matched on net striking-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edmen ShahbazyanGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edmen Shahbazyan(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.9|Blue -55.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edmen ShahbazyanTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

33% acc · 65%

Head

33% acc · 52%

89% acc · 33%

Body

86% acc · 29%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

43% acc · 54%

Distance

48% acc · 95%

56% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

39% acc · 35%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edmen Shahbazyan rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Edmen Shahbazyan edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edmen Shahbazyan edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control2:18

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:21Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 113

Sig Strikes

21 / 44

42.5%

Sig Str %

52.5%

48 / 113

Total Strikes

31 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

2:21

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	14 / 33	16 / 35	0 / 1	0
1	Edmen Shahbazyan	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Gerald Meerschaert	7 / 11	15 / 19	1 / 5	1
2	Edmen Shahbazyan	26 / 63	26 / 63	0 / 0	0

Edmen Shahbazyan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights15

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25