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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Hernandez won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1513

Elo1530

Anthony Hernandez editorial illustration

Edmen ShahbazyanvsAnthony HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Hernandez won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:01

Style matchupEdmen Shahbazyan: Well-roundedvsAnthony Hernandez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Hernandez wins(86.6%)

Actual result: Anthony Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Hernandez at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edmen Shahbazyan is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Anthony Hernandez has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Edmen Shahbazyan

Red Corner

Anthony Hernandez

Blue Corner

+184

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1513

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edmen Shahbazyan

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 24

KOvs Dylan Budka · Feb 25

vs Andre Petroski · Jun 25

KOvs Andre Muniz · Oct 25

DECvs Brendan Allen · Jun 26

latest

Anthony Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Roman Kopylov · Feb 24

KOvs Michel Pereira · Oct 24

vs Brendan Allen · Feb 25

SUBvs Roman Dolidze · Aug 25

KOvs Sean Strickland · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edmen ShahbazyanMetricAnthony Hernandez

3.80

Strikes / min

4.57

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

49%

Strike defense

51%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

5.88

66%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edmen ShahbazyanAnthony Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edmen Shahbazyan(10 fights)Anthony Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.5|Blue +17.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edmen ShahbazyanTargetAnthony Hernandez

By target zone

50% acc · 70%

Head

70% acc · 87%

100% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

80% acc · 6%

By position

49% acc · 57%

Distance

45% acc · 24%

79% acc · 37%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

85% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edmen Shahbazyan rounds

even

Anthony Hernandez rounds

Round 1Edmen Shahbazyan edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:23

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:18

28Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:54Control

Round 3Anthony Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 51

Sig Strikes

63 / 88

69.7%

Sig Str %

72%

33 / 55

Total Strikes

77 / 105

1 / 1

TDs

6 / 15

100%

TD %

58.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

7:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Hernandez	15 / 27	17 / 30	2 / 8	2
1	Edmen Shahbazyan	25 / 42	27 / 45	1 / 1	1
2	Anthony Hernandez	28 / 39	39 / 50	3 / 6	2
2	Edmen Shahbazyan	4 / 8	5 / 9	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Hernandez	20 / 22	21 / 25	1 / 1	0
3	Edmen Shahbazyan	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0

Edmen Shahbazyan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights15

Anthony Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12