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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Edmen Shahbazyan won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1513

Elo1495

Edmen ShahbazyanvsAJ DobsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Edmen Shahbazyan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:33

Style matchupEdmen Shahbazyan: Well-roundedvsAJ Dobson: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Edmen Shahbazyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edmen Shahbazyan at -192 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Edmen Shahbazyan

Red Corner

AJ Dobson

Blue Corner

-192

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1513

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edmen Shahbazyan

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 24

KOvs Dylan Budka · Feb 25

vs Andre Petroski · Jun 25

KOvs Andre Muniz · Oct 25

DECvs Brendan Allen · Jun 26

latest

AJ Dobson

oldest →

vs Jacob Malkoun · Feb 22

vs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 22

vs Tafon Nchukwi · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edmen ShahbazyanMetricAJ Dobson

3.80

Strikes / min

4.29

3.60

Strikes absorbed / min

5.31

49%

Strike defense

46%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

1.67

66%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-1.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edmen ShahbazyanAJ Dobson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edmen Shahbazyan(10 fights)AJ Dobson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.0|Blue -18.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edmen ShahbazyanTargetAJ Dobson

By target zone

56% acc · 70%

Head

19% acc · 47%

67% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

75% acc · 40%

By position

67% acc · 59%

Distance

28% acc · 80%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

63% acc · 37%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edmen Shahbazyan rounds

even

AJ Dobson rounds

Round 1Edmen Shahbazyan edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:49

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 43

Sig Strikes

15 / 46

62%

Sig Str %

32%

31 / 51

Total Strikes

20 / 54

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:49

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	AJ Dobson	15 / 46	20 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Edmen Shahbazyan	27 / 43	31 / 51	1 / 3	0

Edmen Shahbazyan

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights15

AJ Dobson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4