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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Hector Urbina won · SUB R1

Elo1356

Elo1358

Edgar GarciavsHector UrbinaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · Saturday, November 15, 2014Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Hector Urbina won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:38

Model Prediction: Edgar Garcia wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Hector Urbina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edgar Garcia at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hector Urbina threatens submissions; Edgar Garcia has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Edgar Garcia has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Garcia

Red Corner

Hector Urbina

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1356

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edgar Garcia

oldest →

KOvs Sheldon Westcott · Jan 16

latest

Hector UrbinaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 15

KOvs Vicente Luque · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edgar GarciaMetricHector Urbina

3.16

Strikes / min

0.97

4.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

60%

Strike defense

39%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

38%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

3.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.07evenly matched on net striking-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edgar GarciaHector Urbina

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edgar Garcia(2 fights)Hector Urbina(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edgar GarciaTargetHector Urbina

By target zone

63% acc · 83%

Head

50% acc · 25%

Body

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

67% acc · 50%

By position

29% acc · 17%

Distance

50% acc · 75%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

90% acc · 75%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edgar Garcia rounds

even

Hector Urbina rounds

Round 1Edgar Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:39

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 18

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

66%

Sig Str %

57%

15 / 22

Total Strikes

7 / 10

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:39

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hector Urbina	4 / 7	7 / 10	0 / 0	2
1	Edgar Garcia	12 / 18	15 / 22	2 / 2	0

Edgar Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Hector Urbina

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3