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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Edgar Chairez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1474

Edgar ChairezvsFelipe BunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Edgar Chairez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Edgar Chairez wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Edgar Chairez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edgar Chairez at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Chairez

Red Corner

Felipe Bunes

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1542

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edgar ChairezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Tatsuro Taira · Jul 23

SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Feb 24

vs Joshua Van · Sep 24

SUBvs CJ Vergara · Mar 25

SUBvs Bruno Silva · Jun 26

latest

Felipe Bunes

oldest →

KOvs Joshua Van · Jan 24

SUBvs Jose Johnson · Jan 25

vs Rafael Estevam · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edgar ChairezMetricFelipe Bunes

3.65

Strikes / min

3.17

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

46%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.08

38%

Takedown defense

40%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10evenly matched on net striking-1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edgar ChairezFelipe Bunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edgar Chairez(6 fights)Felipe Bunes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.1|Blue -68.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edgar ChairezTargetFelipe Bunes

By target zone

39% acc · 62%

Head

38% acc · 81%

78% acc · 27%

Body

50% acc · 9%

78% acc · 11%

Leg

71% acc · 9%

By position

47% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 96%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edgar Chairez rounds

even

Felipe Bunes rounds

Round 1Felipe Bunes edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:26Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Edgar Chairez edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 136

Sig Strikes

54 / 132

46%

Sig Str %

39.3%

69 / 139

Total Strikes

113 / 202

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Bunes	5 / 13	64 / 81	0 / 1
1	Edgar Chairez	4 / 9	6 / 11	0 / 0
2	Felipe Bunes	20 / 53	20 / 53	0 / 1
2	Edgar Chairez	21 / 52	21 / 52	0 / 0
3	Felipe Bunes	29 / 66	29 / 68	1 / 1
3	Edgar Chairez	41 / 75	42 / 76	0 / 0

Edgar Chairez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Felipe Bunes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4