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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Edgar Chairez won · SUB R1

Elo1542

Elo1483

Edgar ChairezvsDaniel LacerdaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Edgar Chairez won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:17

Model Prediction: Edgar Chairez wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Edgar Chairez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edgar Chairez at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edgar Chairez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Daniel Lacerda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Edgar Chairez threatens submissions; Daniel Lacerda has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Edgar Chairez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Edgar Chairez has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Lacerda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Chairez

Red Corner

Daniel Lacerda

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1542

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edgar ChairezW3 streak

oldest →

vs Tatsuro Taira · Jul 23

vs Joshua Van · Sep 24

SUBvs CJ Vergara · Mar 25

vs Felipe Bunes · Feb 26

SUBvs Bruno Silva · Jun 26

latest

Daniel LacerdaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeff Molina · Oct 21

SUBvs Francisco Figueiredo · Apr 22

KOvs Victor Altamirano · Aug 22

KOvs CJ Vergara · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edgar ChairezMetricDaniel Lacerda

3.65

Strikes / min

3.95

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

8.28

46%

Strike defense

34%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.32

38%

Takedown defense

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 3.23 — meaningful gap-4.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edgar ChairezDaniel Lacerda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edgar Chairez(6 fights)Daniel Lacerda(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.1|Blue -59.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edgar ChairezTargetDaniel Lacerda

By target zone

43% acc · 33%

Head

22% acc · 50%

50% acc · 22%

Body

29% acc · 50%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

0% acc

By position

57% acc · 89%

Distance

17% acc · 50%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

40% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edgar Chairez rounds

even

Daniel Lacerda rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 15

Sig Strikes

4 / 17

60%

Sig Str %

23%

9 / 15

Total Strikes

7 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Lacerda	4 / 17	7 / 22	1 / 1	0
1	Edgar Chairez	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0	1

Edgar Chairez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Daniel Lacerda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5