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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Edgar Chairez won · SUB R1

Elo1542

Elo1486

Edgar ChairezvsCJ VergaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Edgar Chairez won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:30

Model Prediction: Edgar Chairez wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Edgar Chairez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edgar Chairez at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edgar Chairez threatens submissions; CJ Vergara has lost 40% of fights by sub.
CJ Vergara has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Chairez

Red Corner

CJ Vergara

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1542

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edgar ChairezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Tatsuro Taira · Jul 23

SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Feb 24

vs Joshua Van · Sep 24

vs Felipe Bunes · Feb 26

SUBvs Bruno Silva · Jun 26

latest

CJ VergaraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 22

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23

vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Mar 24

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edgar ChairezMetricCJ Vergara

3.65

Strikes / min

5.02

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

46%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

38%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edgar ChairezCJ Vergara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edgar Chairez(6 fights)CJ Vergara(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.3|Blue -55.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edgar ChairezTargetCJ Vergara

By target zone

32% acc · 100%

Head

50% acc · 17%

Body

0% acc

Leg

63% acc · 83%

By position

28% acc · 88%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edgar Chairez rounds

even

CJ Vergara rounds

Round 1Edgar Chairez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:16

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 27

Sig Strikes

6 / 13

29%

Sig Str %

46%

8 / 27

Total Strikes

6 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	CJ Vergara	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Edgar Chairez	8 / 27	8 / 27	0 / 0	1

Edgar Chairez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

CJ Vergara

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8