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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Eddie Wineland won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1427

Elo1359

Eddie WinelandvsTakeya MizugakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Wineland won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupEddie Wineland: StrikervsTakeya Mizugaki: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Eddie Wineland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Takeya Mizugaki has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Eddie Wineland has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Eddie Wineland has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Wineland

Red Corner

Takeya Mizugaki

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1427

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Takeya Mizugaki

oldest →

vs Francisco Rivera · May 14

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie WinelandMetricTakeya Mizugaki

3.40

Strikes / min

3.37

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

68%

Strike defense

57%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

1.46

86%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie WinelandTakeya Mizugaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Wineland(10 fights)Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.7|Blue -68.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie WinelandTargetTakeya Mizugaki

By target zone

27% acc · 89%

Head

24% acc · 62%

50% acc · 11%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

25% acc · 78%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Wineland rounds

even

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

Round 1Eddie Wineland edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns2

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 32

Sig Strikes

13 / 40

28%

Sig Str %

32%

9 / 32

Total Strikes

13 / 40

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takeya Mizugaki	13 / 40	13 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Eddie Wineland	9 / 32	9 / 32	0 / 0	0

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14