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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1427

Elo1533

Eddie WinelandvsSean O'MalleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:54

Style matchupEddie Wineland: StrikervsSean O'Malley: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(78.4%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean O'Malley is a KO finisher (58% of wins). Eddie Wineland has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Eddie Wineland has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Wineland

Red Corner

Sean O'Malley

Blue Corner

+400

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1427

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie WinelandL2 streak

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Apr 17

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie WinelandMetricSean O'Malley

3.40

Strikes / min

6.05

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

68%

Strike defense

60%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.24

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap+2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie WinelandSean O'Malley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Wineland(10 fights)Sean O'Malley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -105.5|Blue +105.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie WinelandTargetSean O'Malley

By target zone

60% acc · 75%

Head

50% acc · 38%

50% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 38%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

65% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Wineland rounds

even

Sean O'Malley rounds

Round 1Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 7

Sig Strikes

13 / 20

57%

Sig Str %

65%

4 / 7

Total Strikes

13 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean O'Malley	13 / 20	13 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Eddie Wineland	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14