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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Eddie Wineland won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1427

Elo1356

Eddie WinelandvsScott JorgensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Wineland won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:10

Style matchupEddie Wineland: StrikervsScott Jorgensen: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Scott Jorgensen wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Eddie Wineland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Scott Jorgensen at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Scott Jorgensen enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Wineland

Red Corner

Scott Jorgensen

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1427

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Scott JorgensenL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Mar 14

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 14

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Oct 14

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jul 15

KOvs Alejandro Perez · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie WinelandMetricScott Jorgensen

3.40

Strikes / min

3.37

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.41

68%

Strike defense

65%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

2.61

86%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie WinelandScott Jorgensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Wineland(10 fights)Scott Jorgensen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +71.7|Blue -71.7

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +174.0|Blue -174.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie WinelandTargetScott Jorgensen

By target zone

31% acc · 89%

Head

26% acc · 67%

36% acc · 8%

Body

70% acc · 15%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

90% acc · 19%

By position

30% acc · 89%

Distance

32% acc · 94%

80% acc · 7%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Wineland rounds

even

Scott Jorgensen rounds

Round 1Eddie Wineland edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:20

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Eddie Wineland edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 188

Sig Strikes

48 / 144

31.5%

Sig Str %

33%

66 / 193

Total Strikes

49 / 145

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Scott Jorgensen	26 / 68	26 / 68	0 / 1
1	Eddie Wineland	32 / 97	37 / 102	1 / 1
2	Scott Jorgensen	22 / 76	23 / 77	0 / 3
2	Eddie Wineland	29 / 91	29 / 91	0 / 0

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Scott Jorgensen

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights12