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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
John Castaneda won · KO/TKO
Elo1427
Eddie Wineland
Elo1495

Eddie WinelandvsJohn CastanedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Castaneda won

KO/TKO

Style matchupEddie Wineland: StrikervsJohn Castaneda: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: John Castaneda wins(60.8%)

Actual result: John Castaneda wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Castaneda at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Eddie Wineland has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Wineland
Red Corner
VS
John Castaneda
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1427
Elo
1495
42
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'7"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie WinelandL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs John Dodson · Apr 17
L
vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18
W
KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20
L
KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22
latest
John Castaneda
oldest →
W
vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23
L
vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 25
D
DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie WinelandMetricJohn Castaneda
3.40
Strikes / min
4.95
3.76
Strikes absorbed / min
5.07
68%
Strike defense
54%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
1.49
86%
Takedown defense
75%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1491 vs 1485Strikes3.4 vs 4.2Takedowns0.3 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -1.0
Eddie WinelandJohn Castaneda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Eddie Wineland(10 fights)John Castaneda(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -67.4|Blue +67.4
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie WinelandTargetJohn Castaneda

By target zone

10
20% acc · 59%
Head
23
68% acc · 55%
3
50% acc · 18%
Body
4
57% acc · 10%
4
40% acc · 24%
Leg
15
94% acc · 36%

By position

16
25% acc · 94%
Distance
34
69% acc · 81%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 5%
1
33% acc · 6%
Ground
6
100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Eddie Wineland rounds
0
even
1
John Castaneda rounds
Round 1John Castaneda edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:12
Knockdowns0
42Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 66
Sig Strikes
42 / 57
25%
Sig Str %
73%
17 / 66
Total Strikes
44 / 59
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:12
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Castaneda42 / 5744 / 590 / 00
1Eddie Wineland17 / 6617 / 661 / 10

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights16

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8