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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Caraway won · U-DEC R3

Elo1427

Elo1369

Eddie WinelandvsBryan CarawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · Saturday, July 25, 2015Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Caraway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEddie Wineland: StrikervsBryan Caraway: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Bryan Caraway wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Bryan Caraway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Caraway at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Wineland

Red Corner

Bryan Caraway

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1427

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 14

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie WinelandMetricBryan Caraway

3.40

Strikes / min

2.53

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

68%

Strike defense

54%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

2.57

86%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie WinelandBryan Caraway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Wineland(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.4|Blue -58.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie WinelandTargetBryan Caraway

By target zone

24% acc · 73%

Head

29% acc · 84%

50% acc · 17%

Body

56% acc · 8%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

28% acc · 92%

Distance

29% acc · 84%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

59% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Wineland rounds

even

Bryan Caraway rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:03

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 180

Sig Strikes

61 / 190

29.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

58 / 186

Total Strikes

72 / 206

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 12

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

1:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Caraway	11 / 45	19 / 57	0 / 4
1	Eddie Wineland	13 / 38	19 / 44	0 / 0
2	Bryan Caraway	23 / 66	23 / 66	0 / 4
2	Eddie Wineland	17 / 70	17 / 70	0 / 0
3	Bryan Caraway	27 / 79	30 / 83	0 / 4
3	Eddie Wineland	22 / 72	22 / 72	0 / 1

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10