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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alejandro Perez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1427

Elo1495

Eddie WinelandvsAlejandro PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Alejandro Perez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEddie Wineland: StrikervsAlejandro Perez: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Alejandro Perez wins(75.6%)

Actual result: Alejandro Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alejandro Perez at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Wineland

Red Corner

Alejandro Perez

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1427

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Apr 17

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Alejandro Perez

oldest →

KOvs Matthew Lopez · Apr 18

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 19

KOvs Song Yadong · Jul 19

SUBvs Johnny Eduardo · Oct 21

vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie WinelandMetricAlejandro Perez

3.40

Strikes / min

3.45

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.18

68%

Strike defense

61%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.54

86%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie WinelandAlejandro Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Wineland(10 fights)Alejandro Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.3|Blue +67.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +357.0|Blue -357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie WinelandTargetAlejandro Perez

By target zone

17% acc · 48%

Head

20% acc · 75%

47% acc · 42%

Body

57% acc · 8%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

90% acc · 17%

By position

26% acc · 98%

Distance

25% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Wineland rounds

even

Alejandro Perez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:02

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Alejandro Perez edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:04

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alejandro Perez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 183

Sig Strikes

53 / 214

25.3%

Sig Str %

24%

48 / 183

Total Strikes

53 / 214

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alejandro Perez	22 / 74	22 / 74	0 / 1
1	Eddie Wineland	22 / 65	22 / 65	0 / 0
2	Alejandro Perez	13 / 70	13 / 70	0 / 0
2	Eddie Wineland	10 / 58	10 / 58	0 / 0
3	Alejandro Perez	18 / 70	18 / 70	0 / 1
3	Eddie Wineland	16 / 60	16 / 60	0 / 0

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16

Alejandro Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12