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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Eddie Alvarez won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1541

Eddie AlvarezvsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Alvarez won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:59

Style matchupEddie Alvarez: WrestlervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Eddie Alvarez wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eddie Alvarez at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Eddie Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Justin Gaethje is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Eddie Alvarez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Alvarez

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1491

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie AlvarezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15

vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16

KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18

latest

Justin GaethjeW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie AlvarezMetricJustin Gaethje

4.32

Strikes / min

6.48

4.39

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

55%

Strike defense

51%

2.92

TDs / 15 min

0.33

92%

Takedown defense

74%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie AlvarezJustin Gaethje

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +237.0|Blue -237.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie AlvarezTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

113

38% acc · 73%

Head

38% acc · 57%

73% acc · 23%

Body

94% acc · 13%

75% acc · 4%

Leg

93% acc · 30%

By position

128

39% acc · 83%

Distance

106

49% acc · 87%

86% acc · 15%

Clinch

94% acc · 12%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Alvarez rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:06

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes73

Takedowns0

Control0:00

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Eddie Alvarez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

155 / 356

Sig Strikes

122 / 237

43.7%

Sig Str %

52%

162 / 366

Total Strikes

124 / 240

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Gaethje	39 / 89	40 / 90	0 / 0
1	Eddie Alvarez	42 / 123	42 / 123	0 / 1
2	Justin Gaethje	51 / 94	51 / 95	0 / 1
2	Eddie Alvarez	73 / 154	75 / 156	0 / 0
3	Justin Gaethje	32 / 54	33 / 55	0 / 0
3	Eddie Alvarez	40 / 79	45 / 87	1 / 1

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15