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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1494

Eddie AlvarezvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, July 28, 2018Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:05

Style matchupEddie Alvarez: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Eddie Alvarez wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eddie Alvarez at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Eddie Alvarez has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Alvarez

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie Alvarez

oldest →

vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15

vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16

KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie AlvarezMetricDustin Poirier

4.32

Strikes / min

5.24

4.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.92

TDs / 15 min

1.15

92%

Takedown defense

64%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie AlvarezDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.6|Blue +2.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie AlvarezTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

19% acc · 38%

Head

44% acc · 81%

67% acc · 38%

Body

67% acc · 7%

75% acc · 23%

Leg

75% acc · 11%

By position

31% acc · 81%

Distance

44% acc · 87%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

67% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Alvarez rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:27

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 76

Sig Strikes

54 / 115

32.5%

Sig Str %

48%

35 / 88

Total Strikes

76 / 138

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Poirier	20 / 63	20 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Eddie Alvarez	18 / 47	18 / 47	0 / 2	0
2	Dustin Poirier	34 / 52	56 / 75	0 / 0	2
2	Eddie Alvarez	8 / 29	17 / 41	0 / 1	1

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31