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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1474

Eddie AlvarezvsConor McGregorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:04

Style matchupEddie Alvarez: WrestlervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Alvarez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Conor McGregor is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Eddie Alvarez has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Eddie Alvarez has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
Conor McGregor has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Eddie Alvarez

Red Corner

Conor McGregor

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1491

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Eddie Alvarez

oldest →

vs Gilbert Melendez · Jun 15

vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18

latest

Conor McGregorL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Eddie AlvarezMetricConor McGregor

4.32

Strikes / min

5.32

4.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.66

55%

Strike defense

54%

2.92

TDs / 15 min

0.67

92%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Eddie AlvarezConor McGregor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.1|Blue -17.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +44.0|Blue -44.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Eddie AlvarezTargetConor McGregor

By target zone

7% acc · 22%

Head

34% acc · 75%

60% acc · 67%

Body

64% acc · 22%

25% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

22% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 75%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

Ground

42% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Eddie Alvarez rounds

even

Conor McGregor rounds

Round 1Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Conor McGregor edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:57

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 41

Sig Strikes

32 / 84

22.5%

Sig Str %

41%

12 / 46

Total Strikes

40 / 93

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Conor McGregor	18 / 57	20 / 60	0 / 0
1	Eddie Alvarez	6 / 29	6 / 29	0 / 1
2	Conor McGregor	14 / 27	20 / 33	0 / 0
2	Eddie Alvarez	3 / 12	6 / 17	0 / 2

Eddie Alvarez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15