Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Justin Scoggins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Justin Scoggins has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Scoggins (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
John Moraga
oldest →L
vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17W
vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17W
KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17L
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18 Justin ScogginsL3 streak
oldest →W
DECvs Joshua Sampo · May 15L
SUBvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 16L
SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Jun 17L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
John MoragaMetricJustin Scoggins
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.02Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+1.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
John MoragaJustin Scoggins
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
John Moraga(10 fights)Justin Scoggins(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +124.8|Blue -124.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +29.0|Blue -29.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
John MoragaTargetJustin Scoggins
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Scoggins edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:11Control
Round 2Justin Scoggins edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
