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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Abus Magomedov won · SUB R3

Elo1528

Elo1504

Abus MagomedovvsBrunno FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Abus Magomedov won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:14

Style matchupAbus Magomedov: WrestlervsBrunno Ferreira: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Abus Magomedov wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Abus Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abus Magomedov at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abus Magomedov has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Abus Magomedov has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Abus Magomedov

Red Corner

Brunno Ferreira

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1528

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'10"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Abus Magomedov

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Nov 23

vs Warlley Alves · May 24

vs Michel Pereira · Apr 25

SUBvs Joe Pyfer · Oct 25

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Jun 26

latest

Brunno FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Mar 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Jul 25

vs Marvin Vettori · Dec 25

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Mar 26

DECvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Abus MagomedovMetricBrunno Ferreira

3.07

Strikes / min

3.77

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

55%

Strike defense

51%

2.61

TDs / 15 min

1.25

100%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Abus MagomedovBrunno Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Abus Magomedov(8 fights)Brunno Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.1|Blue -24.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Abus MagomedovTargetBrunno Ferreira

By target zone

25% acc · 38%

Head

34% acc · 69%

73% acc · 31%

Body

75% acc · 31%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

By position

46% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 90%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Abus Magomedov rounds

even

Brunno Ferreira rounds

Round 1Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:14

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Abus Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control1:22

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 59

Sig Strikes

29 / 71

46.3%

Sig Str %

34.7%

45 / 81

Total Strikes

36 / 83

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

53%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:36

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brunno Ferreira	2 / 12	2 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Abus Magomedov	14 / 29	14 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Brunno Ferreira	20 / 42	22 / 47	0 / 0	1
2	Abus Magomedov	8 / 23	21 / 37	2 / 5	0
3	Brunno Ferreira	7 / 17	12 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Abus Magomedov	4 / 7	10 / 15	2 / 3	1

Abus Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights8

Brunno Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10