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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jared Vanderaa won · U-DEC

Elo1495

Elo1436

Justin TafavsJared VanderaaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Vanderaa won

U-DEC

Style matchupJustin Tafa: Pressure fightervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jared Vanderaa wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Jared Vanderaa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Vanderaa at +157 American odds

+$157 profit

$257 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Justin Tafa is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jared Vanderaa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Justin Tafa has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Jared Vanderaa has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Justin Tafa

Red Corner

Jared Vanderaa

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+157

(39%)

1495

Elo

1436

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Justin TafaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21

KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23

KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23

vs Karl Williams · Mar 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25

latest

Jared VanderaaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22

KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Justin TafaMetricJared Vanderaa

4.05

Strikes / min

4.96

5.11

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

47%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.18

53%

Takedown defense

20%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.06evenly matched on net striking-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Justin TafaJared Vanderaa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Justin Tafa(9 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.6|Blue -58.6

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Justin TafaTargetJared Vanderaa

By target zone

34% acc · 47%

Head

35% acc · 53%

84% acc · 43%

Body

79% acc · 28%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

96% acc · 19%

By position

49% acc · 95%

Distance

104

46% acc · 86%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

77% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Justin Tafa rounds

even

Jared Vanderaa rounds

Round 1Jared Vanderaa edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jared Vanderaa edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Jared Vanderaa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:11

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 147

Sig Strikes

121 / 248

49%

Sig Str %

48.3%

74 / 147

Total Strikes

141 / 269

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Vanderaa	31 / 64	31 / 64	0 / 0
1	Justin Tafa	15 / 38	15 / 38	0 / 0
2	Jared Vanderaa	47 / 90	60 / 103	0 / 0
2	Justin Tafa	26 / 47	26 / 47	0 / 0
3	Jared Vanderaa	43 / 94	50 / 102	0 / 0
3	Justin Tafa	33 / 62	33 / 62	0 / 0

Justin Tafa

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9

Jared Vanderaa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7