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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · S-DEC R3

Elo1458

Elo1379

Ed HermanvsTrevor SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsTrevor Smith: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(75.7%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Trevor Smith

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1458

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Trevor SmithL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 16

vs Chris Camozzi · May 17

vs Elias Theodorou · May 18

vs Zak Cummings · Dec 18

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricTrevor Smith

3.31

Strikes / min

3.29

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

42%

Strike defense

51%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.70

59%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanTrevor Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Trevor Smith(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.3|Blue -79.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetTrevor Smith

By target zone

46% acc · 63%

Head

66% acc · 43%

90% acc · 37%

Body

96% acc · 30%

Leg

96% acc · 28%

By position

44% acc · 56%

Distance

76% acc · 64%

91% acc · 44%

Clinch

91% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Trevor Smith rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:03

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 2Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:12

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 3Trevor Smith edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:02

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 129

Sig Strikes

87 / 108

53.3%

Sig Str %

80.3%

127 / 187

Total Strikes

112 / 136

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 5

33.3%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:17

Ctrl Time

3:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trevor Smith	36 / 45	44 / 55	0 / 2	0
1	Ed Herman	41 / 59	64 / 83	0 / 1	0
2	Trevor Smith	25 / 31	34 / 41	1 / 2	0
2	Ed Herman	17 / 36	35 / 54	1 / 2	0
3	Trevor Smith	26 / 32	34 / 40	0 / 1	1
3	Ed Herman	15 / 34	28 / 50	1 / 2	1

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Trevor Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12