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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ed Herman won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1458
Ed Herman
Elo1490
Tim Credeur

Ed HermanvsTim CredeurUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:48

Model Prediction: Tim Credeur wins(68.9%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Credeur at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tim Credeur has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman
Red Corner
VS
Tim Credeur
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1458
Elo
1490
45
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19
W
vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19
W
SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21
L
KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23
latest
Tim CredeurNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricTim Credeur
3.31
Strikes / min
3.59
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
3.13
42%
Strike defense
57%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.41
59%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
3.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes27.0 vs 30.0Takedowns2.6 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.78 vs 2.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Ed HermanTim Credeur

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ed Herman(10 fights)Tim Credeur(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.3|Blue +32.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetTim Credeur

By target zone

11
61% acc · 100%
Head
9
41% acc · 82%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 18%

By position

6
43% acc · 55%
Distance
11
46% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
0
4
100% acc · 36%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ed Herman rounds
0
even
0
Tim Credeur rounds
Round 1Ed Herman edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
11 / 19
Sig Strikes
11 / 24
57%
Sig Str %
45%
11 / 19
Total Strikes
11 / 24
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tim Credeur11 / 2411 / 240 / 00
1Ed Herman11 / 1911 / 190 / 00

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16

Tim Credeur

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights1