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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thales Leites won · U-DEC R3

Elo1458

Elo1491

Ed HermanvsThales LeitesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thales Leites won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsThales Leites: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Thales Leites wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thales Leites has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ed Herman has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Thales Leites

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1458

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Thales Leites

oldest →

vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16

vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17

vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17

KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18

vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricThales Leites

3.31

Strikes / min

2.13

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

42%

Strike defense

52%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

2.10

59%

Takedown defense

30%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanThales Leites

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Thales Leites(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.4|Blue +33.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetThales Leites

By target zone

29% acc · 64%

Head

58% acc · 95%

67% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 5%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

24% acc · 36%

Distance

57% acc · 40%

54% acc · 50%

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

67% acc · 14%

Ground

59% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Thales Leites rounds

Round 1Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:33Control

Round 2Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:36

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Round 3Thales Leites edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:39

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 37

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

43.7%

Sig Str %

59%

51 / 76

Total Strikes

47 / 66

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

38.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

11:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thales Leites	8 / 16	23 / 32	1 / 2
1	Ed Herman	3 / 5	9 / 11	0 / 0
2	Thales Leites	5 / 10	8 / 16	1 / 3
2	Ed Herman	4 / 10	23 / 31	0 / 0
3	Thales Leites	7 / 9	16 / 18	1 / 3
3	Ed Herman	7 / 22	19 / 34	0 / 0

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights13