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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1458

Elo1361

Ed HermanvsRafael NatalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsRafael Natal: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rafael Natal has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rafael Natal has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Rafael Natal

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1458

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Uriah Hall · May 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricRafael Natal

3.31

Strikes / min

3.10

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

42%

Strike defense

57%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

2.55

59%

Takedown defense

77%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanRafael Natal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.8|Blue -96.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -10.0|Blue +10.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetRafael Natal

By target zone

41% acc · 43%

Head

37% acc · 43%

100% acc · 18%

Body

47% acc · 23%

83% acc · 39%

Leg

80% acc · 34%

By position

47% acc · 47%

Distance

41% acc · 54%

72% acc · 41%

Clinch

73% acc · 23%

86% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Rafael Natal rounds

Round 1Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:11

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:09

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 3Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:37

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 87

Sig Strikes

35 / 73

56.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

78 / 117

Total Strikes

71 / 114

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 6

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

4:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Natal	14 / 26	34 / 49	0 / 0
1	Ed Herman	10 / 20	19 / 31	1 / 1
2	Rafael Natal	10 / 20	23 / 35	1 / 1
2	Ed Herman	17 / 30	31 / 45	0 / 0
3	Rafael Natal	11 / 27	14 / 30	0 / 5
3	Ed Herman	24 / 37	28 / 41	0 / 3

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16