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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · SUB

Elo1458

Elo1408

Ed HermanvsMike RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Saturday, September 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

SUB

Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsMike Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Mike Rodriguez wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Rodriguez at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ed Herman has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
Mike Rodriguez has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Mike Rodriguez

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1458

Elo

1408

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Oct 18

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Mike RodriguezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Adam Milstead · Dec 18

KOvs Da Un Jung · Dec 19

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20

SUBvs Danilo Marques · Feb 21

vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricMike Rodriguez

3.31

Strikes / min

4.35

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

42%

Strike defense

41%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

0.00

59%

Takedown defense

37%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanMike Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.1|Blue -50.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +287.0|Blue -287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetMike Rodriguez

By target zone

34% acc · 35%

Head

64% acc · 47%

76% acc · 40%

Body

81% acc · 34%

91% acc · 25%

Leg

81% acc · 19%

By position

44% acc · 48%

Distance

62% acc · 38%

72% acc · 53%

Clinch

87% acc · 54%

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Mike Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Mike Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:08

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Mike Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:29

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:42Control

2Knockdowns

Round 3Mike Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:32

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 73

Sig Strikes

89 / 124

45.7%

Sig Str %

72.3%

51 / 84

Total Strikes

114 / 149

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:09

Ctrl Time

3:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rodriguez	31 / 49	38 / 56	0 / 0	0
1	Ed Herman	21 / 37	26 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Mike Rodriguez	24 / 31	37 / 44	0 / 1	0
2	Ed Herman	18 / 32	23 / 37	1 / 2	0
3	Mike Rodriguez	34 / 44	39 / 49	0 / 0	0
3	Ed Herman	1 / 4	2 / 5	1 / 2	1

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Mike Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights7