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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · SUB R1

Elo1458

Elo1359

Ed HermanvsKyle NokeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsKyle Noke: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Kyle Noke wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Noke at -132 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Noke has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Noke (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Kyle Noke

Blue Corner

+122

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1458

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Kyle NokeL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jonavin Webb · May 15

KOvs Peter Sobotta · Nov 15

vs Alex Morono · Jan 16

SUBvs Keita Nakamura · Jul 16

vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricKyle Noke

3.31

Strikes / min

3.23

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.09

42%

Strike defense

64%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.53

59%

Takedown defense

66%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanKyle Noke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Kyle Noke(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +99.3|Blue -99.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetKyle Noke

By target zone

33% acc · 100%

Head

86% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

25% acc · 50%

Distance

100% acc · 25%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

90% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Kyle Noke rounds

Round 1Kyle Noke edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:12

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 6

Sig Strikes

12 / 13

33%

Sig Str %

92%

4 / 8

Total Strikes

19 / 20

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Noke	12 / 13	19 / 20	1 / 3	0
1	Ed Herman	2 / 6	4 / 8	1 / 1	3

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12