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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1458

Elo1454

Ed HermanvsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:36

Style matchupEd Herman: Submission grapplervsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Ed Herman wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ed Herman at +540 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derek Brunson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

+540

(16%)

Vegas Odds

-660

(87%)

1458

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricDerek Brunson

3.31

Strikes / min

3.51

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

42%

Strike defense

51%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

3.14

59%

Takedown defense

85%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.6|Blue -3.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

59% acc · 91%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

0% acc

Distance

67% acc · 36%

Clinch

Ground

58% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 4

Sig Strikes

11 / 18

Sig Str %

61%

0 / 4

Total Strikes

11 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	11 / 18	11 / 18	0 / 0	0
1	Ed Herman	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0	0

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21