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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ed Herman won · SUB R2

Elo1458

Elo1352

Ed HermanvsClifford StarksUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ed Herman won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:43

Model Prediction: Clifford Starks wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Ed Herman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clifford Starks at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clifford Starks has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Ed Herman

Red Corner

Clifford Starks

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1458

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ed HermanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

vs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 21

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Clifford Starks

oldest →

vs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 11

KOvs Yoel Romero · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ed HermanMetricClifford Starks

3.31

Strikes / min

1.94

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.49

42%

Strike defense

58%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

1.94

59%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ed HermanClifford Starks

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ed Herman(10 fights)Clifford Starks(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.8|Blue -105.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +76.0|Blue -76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ed HermanTargetClifford Starks

By target zone

28% acc · 36%

Head

44% acc · 100%

93% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 46%

Distance

41% acc · 81%

94% acc · 54%

Clinch

75% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ed Herman rounds

even

Clifford Starks rounds

Round 1Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:46

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 2Ed Herman edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:37

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 57

Sig Strikes

16 / 36

47%

Sig Str %

35.5%

53 / 88

Total Strikes

35 / 61

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

3:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clifford Starks	15 / 32	33 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Ed Herman	24 / 48	47 / 77	1 / 3	0
2	Clifford Starks	1 / 4	2 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Ed Herman	4 / 9	6 / 11	1 / 1	2

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16

Clifford Starks

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3