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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Casey Kenney won · U-DEC
Elo1406
Elo1493

Casey KenneyvsHeili AlatengUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · Saturday, October 3, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Casey Kenney won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Casey Kenney wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Casey Kenney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Casey Kenney at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Casey Kenney
Red Corner
VS
Heili Alateng
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+246
(29%)
1406
Elo
1493
35
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'5"
172.72 cm
Reach
168.91 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Casey KenneyL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20
W
SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20
W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20
L
vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21
L
vs Song Yadong · Aug 21
latest
Heili AlatengW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Danaa Batgerel · Aug 19
W
vs Ryan Benoit · Dec 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Casey KenneyMetricHeili Alateng
4.85
Strikes / min
—
4.67
Strikes absorbed / min
—
58%
Strike defense
—
1.09
TDs / 15 min
—
61%
Takedown defense
—
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1532Strikes3.7 vs 2.8Takedowns1.4 vs 3.5Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 1.0
Casey KenneyHeili Alateng

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Casey Kenney(8 fights)Heili Alateng(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -86.8|Blue +86.8
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -161.0|Blue +161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8

Heili Alateng

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach66.5"
Fights2