Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mark Hominick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jose Aldo has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25 Mark HominickL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs George Roop · Jan 11L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 11 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jose AldoMetricMark Hominick
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.10
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jose AldoMark Hominick
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Mark Hominick(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +141.5|Blue -141.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +47.9|Blue -47.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.9|Blue -49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jose AldoTargetMark Hominick
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns2
Control2:56
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns2
Control2:34
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control1:38
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control2:06
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 5Mark Hominick edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
