Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Santos is a KO finisher (79% of wins). Jack Hermansson has lost 63% of fights by KO.
- Jack Hermansson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22 Jack HermanssonL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25L
KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago SantosMetricJack Hermansson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.15evenly matched on net striking+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago SantosJack Hermansson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -48.2|Blue +48.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.0|Blue +2.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago SantosTargetJack Hermansson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Santos edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
