Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22 Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs CB Dollaway · Dec 15W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago SantosMetricNate Marquardt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.15evenly matched on net striking+0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago SantosNate Marquardt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Santos(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +69.7|Blue -69.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +9.0|Blue -9.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago SantosTargetNate Marquardt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Santos edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:27
Knockdowns2
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
