Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Thatch enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Justin Edwards threatens submissions; Brandon Thatch has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Brandon Thatch has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (52.9%).
- Brandon Thatch has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin EdwardsL2 streak
oldest →L
vs John Maguire · Nov 11W
SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12L
vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14L
SUBvs Joe Proctor · Jun 15 Brandon ThatchL4 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13L
SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15L
SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16L
SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin EdwardsMetricBrandon Thatch
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.64evenly matched on net striking-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin EdwardsBrandon Thatch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Edwards(7 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.1|Blue +4.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin EdwardsTargetBrandon Thatch
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Brandon Thatch edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:18Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
