Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25 Vicente Luque
oldest →L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25W
SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stephen ThompsonMetricVicente Luque
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.05Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stephen ThompsonVicente Luque
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stephen Thompson(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -21.9|Blue +21.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stephen ThompsonTargetVicente Luque
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Vicente Luque edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes51
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes55
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns1
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
