Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rinya Nakamura is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Nathan Fletcher has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rinya Nakamura has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rinya Nakamura (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rinya Nakamura
oldest →W
KOvs Toshiomi Kazama · Feb 23W
vs Fernie Garcia · Aug 23L
vs Muin Gafurov · Jan 25 Nathan Fletcher
oldest →W
SUBvs Zygimantas Ramaska · Sep 24L
vs Caolan Loughran · Mar 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rinya NakamuraMetricNathan Fletcher
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.55evenly matched on net striking+1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rinya NakamuraNathan Fletcher
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rinya Nakamura(5 fights)Nathan Fletcher(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +35.5|Blue -35.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rinya NakamuraTargetNathan Fletcher
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rinya Nakamura edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
