Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Benito Lopez has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Benito Lopez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mario BautistaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Benito Lopez
oldest →W
vs Albert Morales · Dec 17L
SUBvs Manny Bermudez · Feb 19W
vs Vince Morales · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mario BautistaMetricBenito Lopez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.32Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Mario BautistaBenito Lopez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mario Bautista(10 fights)Benito Lopez(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +59.3|Blue -59.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -1078.0|Blue +1078.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Mario BautistaTargetBenito Lopez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns1
Control2:36
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
