Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Colton Smith has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Michael Chiesa has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
- Michael Chiesa has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Colton SmithL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · May 13L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jun 14 Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Colton SmithMetricMichael Chiesa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.66evenly matched on net striking+0.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Colton SmithMichael Chiesa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Colton Smith(4 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -175.6|Blue +175.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Colton SmithTargetMichael Chiesa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Colton Smith edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control2:26
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:10Control
Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:44
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:11Control
