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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jon Jones won · U-DEC R5

Elo1511

Elo1522

Jon JonesvsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Saturday, February 8, 2020Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jon Jones won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJon Jones: Elusive strikervsDominick Reyes: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Jon Jones wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Jon Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Jones at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Jones enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jon Jones has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Dominick Reyes (53.5%).
Jon Jones has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jon Jones

Red Corner

Dominick Reyes

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1511

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jon JonesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Dec 18

vs Anthony Smith · Mar 19

vs Thiago Santos · Jul 19

SUBvs Ciryl Gane · Mar 23

KOvs Stipe Miocic · Nov 24

latest

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jon JonesMetricDominick Reyes

4.38

Strikes / min

4.99

2.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

64%

Strike defense

49%

1.89

TDs / 15 min

0.25

95%

Takedown defense

82%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14evenly matched on net striking+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jon JonesDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jon Jones(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.6|Blue +10.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +104.0|Blue -104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jon JonesTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

42% acc · 30%

Head

24% acc · 35%

77% acc · 29%

Body

87% acc · 41%

81% acc · 41%

Leg

77% acc · 23%

By position

101

63% acc · 97%

Distance

109

43% acc · 94%

60% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jon Jones rounds

even

Dominick Reyes rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:15

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:56

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Jon Jones edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:30

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 166

Sig Strikes

116 / 259

62%

Sig Str %

43.8%

107 / 170

Total Strikes

119 / 263

2 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

20.8%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominick Reyes	23 / 59	23 / 59	0 / 0
1	Jon Jones	17 / 27	17 / 27	0 / 2
2	Dominick Reyes	33 / 68	33 / 68	0 / 0
2	Jon Jones	22 / 37	22 / 37	0 / 0
3	Dominick Reyes	26 / 45	27 / 46	0 / 0
3	Jon Jones	19 / 34	20 / 35	0 / 2
4	Jon Jones	20 / 34	20 / 35	1 / 3
4	Dominick Reyes	13 / 41	14 / 42	0 / 0
5	Dominick Reyes	21 / 46	22 / 48	0 / 0
5	Jon Jones	26 / 34	28 / 36	1 / 2

Jon Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights19

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13