Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Robbie Lawler is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Robbie Lawler (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Robbie Lawler
oldest →L
vs Colby Covington · Aug 19L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Aug 20L
KOvs Bryan Barberena · Jul 22W
KOvs Niko Price · Jul 23 Rory MacDonald
oldest →L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Robbie LawlerMetricRory MacDonald
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.82Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Robbie LawlerRory MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Robbie Lawler(10 fights)Rory MacDonald(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +141.9|Blue -141.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -63.0|Blue +63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Robbie LawlerTargetRory MacDonald
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:08
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 4Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 5Robbie Lawler edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
