Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Hatsu Hioki has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Darren Elkins
oldest →W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25 Hatsu HiokiL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12W
vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14L
KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Darren ElkinsMetricHatsu Hioki
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Darren ElkinsHatsu Hioki
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Darren Elkins(10 fights)Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +144.8|Blue -144.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Darren ElkinsTargetHatsu Hioki
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:34
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
Round 2Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control2:15
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 3Darren Elkins edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control4:11
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
