Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jorge MasvidalL4 streak
oldest →L
vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21L
vs Colby Covington · Mar 22L
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23 Lorenz Larkin
oldest →L
vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14W
KOvs John Howard · Jan 15W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jorge MasvidalMetricLorenz Larkin
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jorge MasvidalLorenz Larkin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -34.3|Blue +34.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jorge MasvidalTargetLorenz Larkin
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:40
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:23
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:41Control
Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control1:44
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:26Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
