Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Roger Narvaez has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Patrick CumminsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 17W
vs Gian Villante · Jul 17L
vs Corey Anderson · Apr 18L
SUBvs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 18 Roger Narvaez
oldest →W
vs Luke Barnatt · Nov 14L
KOvs Elias Theodorou · Mar 15 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Patrick CumminsMetricRoger Narvaez
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.91Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Patrick CumminsRoger Narvaez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Patrick Cummins(10 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -117.5|Blue +117.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Patrick CumminsTargetRoger Narvaez
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control2:31
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Patrick Cummins edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control1:22
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
