← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brad Tavares won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1481

Riki FukudavsBrad TavaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · Saturday, March 2, 2013Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Brad Tavares won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRiki Fukuda: WrestlervsBrad Tavares: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brad Tavares wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Brad Tavares wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Tavares at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Riki Fukuda has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Riki Fukuda (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Riki Fukuda

Red Corner

Brad Tavares

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1490

Elo

1481

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Riki Fukuda

oldest →

vs Nick Ring · Feb 11

vs Steve Cantwell · Feb 12

DECvs Costas Philippou · Jul 12

vs Tom DeBlass · Nov 12

latest

Brad TavaresL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 24

vs JunYong Park · Oct 24

vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 25

KOvs Robert Bryczek · Sep 25

vs Eryk Anders · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Riki FukudaMetricBrad Tavares

4.24

Strikes / min

3.41

3.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

64%

Strike defense

54%

2.17

TDs / 15 min

0.70

70%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Riki FukudaBrad Tavares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Riki Fukuda(5 fights)Brad Tavares(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.4|Blue -9.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Riki FukudaTargetBrad Tavares

By target zone

30% acc · 51%

Head

40% acc · 74%

69% acc · 16%

Body

90% acc · 16%

61% acc · 33%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

39% acc · 96%

Distance

113

46% acc · 97%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

43% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Riki Fukuda rounds

even

Brad Tavares rounds

Round 1Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:40

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:20

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Brad Tavares edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 172

Sig Strikes

116 / 254

39.3%

Sig Str %

46%

75 / 182

Total Strikes

131 / 270

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Tavares	29 / 57	35 / 63	0 / 0
1	Riki Fukuda	16 / 41	17 / 43	1 / 1
2	Brad Tavares	43 / 91	45 / 94	0 / 0
2	Riki Fukuda	20 / 54	22 / 56	0 / 0
3	Brad Tavares	44 / 106	51 / 113	0 / 0
3	Riki Fukuda	33 / 77	36 / 83	0 / 0

Riki Fukuda

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Brad Tavares

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights28