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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roman Kopylov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1520

Elo1495

Roman KopylovvsJosh FremdUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roman Kopylov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:44

Model Prediction: Roman Kopylov wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Roman Kopylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roman Kopylov at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Fremd threatens submissions; Roman Kopylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Roman Kopylov has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roman Kopylov

Red Corner

Josh Fremd

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1520

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

KOvs Chris Curtis · Jan 25

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Josh Fremd

oldest →

vs Anthony Hernandez · Apr 22

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Oct 22

SUBvs Sedriques Dumas · Mar 23

vs Jamie Pickett · Aug 23

vs Andre Petroski · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roman KopylovMetricJosh Fremd

4.54

Strikes / min

2.52

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

53%

Strike defense

47%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.66

88%

Takedown defense

30%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roman KopylovJosh Fremd

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roman Kopylov(10 fights)Josh Fremd(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.8|Blue -24.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roman KopylovTargetJosh Fremd

By target zone

41% acc · 47%

Head

22% acc · 47%

90% acc · 18%

Body

62% acc · 21%

94% acc · 35%

Leg

55% acc · 32%

By position

59% acc · 96%

Distance

32% acc · 97%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roman Kopylov rounds

even

Josh Fremd rounds

Round 1Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:02

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 84

Sig Strikes

38 / 116

58%

Sig Str %

32%

54 / 90

Total Strikes

38 / 116

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Fremd	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 2
1	Roman Kopylov	27 / 41	28 / 43	0 / 0
2	Josh Fremd	16 / 58	16 / 58	0 / 3
2	Roman Kopylov	22 / 43	26 / 47	0 / 0

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12

Josh Fremd

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6