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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · SUB R3

Elo1504

Elo1489

Yair RodriguezvsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

SUB · Round 3 · 0:58

Model Prediction: Yair Rodriguez wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yair Rodriguez at -166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Ortega enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Yair Rodriguez

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1504

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Nov 21

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Brian OrtegaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Chan Sung Jung · Oct 20

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Yair RodriguezMetricBrian Ortega

4.65

Strikes / min

3.84

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

52%

Strike defense

49%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.93

59%

Takedown defense

54%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Yair RodriguezBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.1|Blue -15.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -357.0|Blue +357.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Yair RodriguezTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

40% acc · 65%

Head

38% acc · 93%

73% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 7%

89% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 62%

Distance

26% acc · 46%

75% acc · 16%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

71% acc · 22%

Ground

65% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Yair Rodriguez rounds

even

Brian Ortega rounds

Round 1Yair Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control1:32

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Brian Ortega edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:55Control

Round 3Brian Ortega edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 115

Sig Strikes

28 / 73

38.3%

Sig Str %

23.7%

64 / 135

Total Strikes

47 / 104

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

5:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ortega	6 / 28	7 / 30	1 / 2	0
1	Yair Rodriguez	45 / 91	50 / 102	0 / 1	0
2	Brian Ortega	22 / 44	39 / 70	1 / 3	0
2	Yair Rodriguez	9 / 17	13 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Brian Ortega	0 / 1	1 / 4	1 / 1	1
3	Yair Rodriguez	1 / 7	1 / 7	0 / 0	0

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13