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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alex Caceres won · S-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1500

Roland DelormevsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Alex Caceres won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRoland Delorme: WrestlervsAlex Caceres: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Roland Delorme wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roland Delorme at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roland Delorme threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Alex Caceres has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alex Caceres has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Roland Delorme

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1353

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Roland DelormeL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Ferguson · Dec 11

SUBvs Nick Denis · May 12

vs Edwin Figueroa · Jun 13

vs Michinori Tanaka · Jun 14

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Aug 14

latest

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Roland DelormeMetricAlex Caceres

2.28

Strikes / min

4.21

4.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

40%

Strike defense

62%

2.51

TDs / 15 min

0.54

42%

Takedown defense

64%

1.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.04Δ 3.16 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Roland DelormeAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Roland Delorme(6 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -146.3|Blue +146.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Roland DelormeTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

31% acc · 55%

Head

59% acc · 77%

63% acc · 36%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

36% acc · 81%

Distance

63% acc · 88%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

90% acc · 8%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Roland Delorme rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:16Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:46

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Alex Caceres edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:58

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 115

Sig Strikes

106 / 162

40.3%

Sig Str %

65%

70 / 140

Total Strikes

116 / 174

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

6.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

4:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Caceres	25 / 38	27 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Roland Delorme	13 / 31	30 / 50	0 / 1	1
2	Alex Caceres	43 / 68	45 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Roland Delorme	20 / 49	23 / 52	1 / 5	0
3	Alex Caceres	38 / 56	44 / 64	0 / 0	0
3	Roland Delorme	14 / 35	17 / 38	0 / 3	0

Roland Delorme

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29